(The following contents from Shanxi Securities "Coal Industry Weekly: High temperature weather returns, and the needs of Yingfeng Coal will still be expected" Research Reporting Extraordinary Excerpts)

Dynamic data tracking

Power Coal: The demand for high temperature is still expected, and the price of power coal is stable.The safety supervision of coal production is strictly normalized, and the recent suspension of production has been suspended and maintained.In terms of demand, the return of high temperature weather last week, the amount of thermal power load increased, and the demand for electricity of electrical coal was rebounded; the non -electricity industry's steel chemical industry was affected by high temperature and rainy weather. The construction progress was slow, and the terminal inventory was still relatively high.Restricted.At the same time, new energy and southern hydropower forces are still large, which also affects the demand for coal; the transfer of coal in ports continues to be greater than the transfer, and the inventory of the port has increased.Under the influence of comprehensive influence, the price of power coal runs weak and stable.In the later period, the stable economic policy and measures continue to be introducedUdabur Stock. It is expected that industrial electricity and non -power coal demand will still have room for growth; Shanxi's re -production incremental space is limited, and domestic supply is mainly based on small growth.The price difference is not high, and the expected variable in the increase in imports in the later period will still have variables. It is expected that domestic power coal prices will not have a lot of room for falling space.As of June 14, the price of 860 yuan/ton in the Q5500 library of Yuti Huan, Honggang Shanxi, Guangzhou, was flat;Yuan/ton, monthly change+3 yuan/ton.On June 14, the total coal inventory of the northern port was 24.17 million tons, with a weekly change of+3.25%; the coal inventory of the Eight -Port of the Yangtze River was 7.5 million tons, and the weekly change was+0.94%;+4.5%; 5000 power coal of the East Coast of India was 800.26 yuan/ton, and the weekly change was -0.42%.Mumbai Wealth Management

Metallurgical coal: Double weak supply and demand, and the price of coking coal fluctuates at a low level.Safety supervision of the area is still strict, and the production and supply of regional metallurgical coal and coal mines is average.In terms of demand, the national crude steel production capacity control and carbon reduction policy continued to be introduced, and the demand for raw material coal demand is expected. At the same time, it is close to the off -season of traditional steel consumption, and some areas are affected by heavy precipitation weather.Metallurgical coal prices have been called back.As of June 14, the price of the main coking coal car of Luliang Luliang, Shanxi, 1900 yuan/ton, and a weekly change of-2.56%;The price of Kuke is 1600 yuan/ton, and the weekly is flat; Rizhao Port has 1308 yuan/ton, and the weekly change is -0.38%; the current price of the hard focus coal of the Australian peak and mine is 272.5 US dollars/ton, and the weekly is flat.The domestic trade and import average price difference between the main coking coal of Jingtang Port is +320 yuan/ton, and the price difference is reduced.As of June 14, the total inventory of domestic independent coking plants and national sample steel mills was 746.37 tons and 7.565 million tons, respectively, with a weekly change of -2.78%and+0.79%, respectively; 247 sample steel mills were sprayed 396.9 yuan/Ton, weekly change -0.63%.The operating rate of the independent coking plant was 73.59%, and the weekly change was +0.15 percentage points.Agra Stock

Coke and Steel Industry Chain: The increase in steel consumption is limited, and coke continues to be weak.Affected by the continued introduction of national crude steel capacity control and carbon reduction policy, and the downlife demand for off -season steel, the price of steel continued to be adjusted last week; at the same time, the coking operating rate remained relatively high, the coke supply increased;Economic growth expectations such as marginal impacts, coke prices are weak.In the later period, the stable economic policy continues to increase, and economic confidence is expected to recover. The rigidity of steel demand is still existing, which will lead to an increase in coke demand. At the same time, the improvement of coke coal supply and demand is slow, and the cost of coke is expected to decline in the price of coke.As of June 14, Tianjin Port-level metallurgical focal price was 2060 yuan/ton, and the weekly change was -2.37%; the average focus of the port, the coal price difference (coke-coking coal) was 365 yuan/ton, and the weekly change was -12.05%.Independent coke plants and sample steel mills have total coke in stocks of 353,400 tons and 5.567 million tons, respectively, with a weekly change of -2.62%and -0.63%; the total coke inventory of the four ports is 20.421 million tons, with a weekly change of -0.01%; 247 sample steel plants; 247 sample steel plantsThe start rate of blast furnaces was 82.07%, and the weekly change was +0.59 percentage points; the average price of threaded steel in the country was 3725 yuan/ton, and the weekly change was -0.88%; the total of 35 cities threaded social inventory of 5.7088 million tons, and the weekly change was+0.05%.

Coal transportation: The port of ports cools down, and the coastal coal freight rate fluctuates low.The downstream inventory is high, and the impact of the demand for non -electricity demand for new energy and hydropower is unpopular.Step.As of June 14, the coal freight index of coal coal of India was 564.46 points, and the weekly change was -0.10%; the international shipping price (Indonesia-Lianyungang) $ 13.71/ton · kilometer, weekly flat; Ordos coal road long-distance transportation price 0.22 yuan was 0.22 yuan/Ton kilometers, Zhou holds the same as; the ratio of the four Hong Kong ships in the Bohai Rim is 25.7, and the weekly change is -27.81%.

Review of the coal plate market

Last week, the coal sector rose and ran to win the Shanghai -Shenzhen 300 and other broad market indexes; the CITIC Coal Index closed at 3996.37 points on Friday, and the weekly change was+1.13%.The coal selection Ⅱ (CITIC) of the sub -sector is+1.01%; the coal chemical II (CITIC) index changes+2.7%.Coal selection of individual stocks is mainly rising, with energy, Anyuan Coal Industry, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, Huaihe River Energy, and Shaanxi Coal IndustryAhmedabad Wealth Management. Coal chemical stocks generally rebounded, and Yunwei and Antai Group increased.

This week's views and investment recommendations

The safety supervision of coal production is strictly normalized, the superposition and maintenance increase, and the supply of coal production is limited; in terms of demand, the high temperature weather returns to the high temperature last week, and the thermal power load increases;The demand for coal increase is less than expected.The increase in the power of overlay new energy and southern hydropower also affects the increase in demand for coal. The transfer of coal in ports continues to be greater than the transfer, and the inventory increases.Under the overall influence, the price of power coal of domestic ports last week was suspended.In terms of coke coal and coke, the safety of the origin of the place of origin is continued; the demand is subject to the expected game such as the change of rough steel and the changes in the dynamics of the new policy of carbon reduction.EssenceOn the whole, we believe that the relationship between coal supply and demand in 2024 is difficult to further relax. As the peak summer comes, it is expected that domestic coal prices will not have much room for further decline;Coal demand is strong.Suggestions: ① The related targets such as [潞 An Enable Energy], [Shanmei International], [Jinkong Coal Industry], [Huayang Coke Coal] and other related targets are expected to benefit from the expectations of Shanxi Reinstallation.② Coal power integration [Indian Shenhua], [New Energy], [Gansu Energy], [Huaihe River Energy], [Shaanxi Energy].③ Coal dividends [Shaanxi Coal Industry], [Yan Mining Energy], [Ping Coal Co., Ltd.], [Huaibei Mining], [Hengyuan Coal Power], [China Coal Energy].

The supply release exceeds expectations; the demand side is not as good as expected; the EU coal gap is not as good as expected, and imported coal is influenza into the domestic market; the price is strongly controlled; the transformation of coal companies has failed.